Projection from Internasional Financial Institution : Economic Growth Downwardses 200 Base Points

Economic growth perception in this year continued change. One of them is projection that conducted by international financial institution like World Bank, ADB and IMF. That international finance institutes previous project that this year economic growth can 6,4 percents, revise it becomes 6,2 percents.

Head Fiscal policy Bureau (BKF), Department of Finance Anggito Abimanyu says, this condition becomes one of urgency reason revise number of economic growth assumption. “They (international financial institution) generally, project that Indonesia economic growth in 2008 will experience of degradation 200 baseses poin from 6,4 become 6,2 percents,” he said in Jakarta, last weekend.

Anggito expresses that two that cause of economic growth degradations are caused by external set of circumstanses stricken world economics. “In consequence,, APBN 2008 must altered because can not accomodate various of global economy changes that happened consequence of world economic growth deceleration, oil increase of price, and increase of price of world food commodity.” he said.

Meanwhile Chief Economist Citibank Anton Gunawan tells, USA stricken crisis will affect negative at Indonesia. “Import from USA projected downhill till 0,6 percents in Q2 2008 and 0,5 percents at Q3 2008. This means happened export degradation from countries of trade partner of USA, entered Indonesia,” he said.

Anton enhances, Indonesia have commodity and energy source, two natural resourceses that will stay on the happening of crisis. “Indonesia can maximize this potency to strengthen economy in country.

Indonesia bank must balances monetary, for whereas to care of inflation quantity, on the other side to care of stability of rupiah exchange rate,” he said. He says, position ideal BI Rate for at this time predicted about 7,50 percents. Whereas ideal rupiah exchange rate about Rp 9.200 – 9.300 every US dollar.

Citi by it self projects that rupiah at first kuartal it is at gyration Rp 9.250 every US dollar, Kuartal two Rp 9.300 every US dollar, Kuarta three equal to kuartal two and kuartal four Rp 9.375 every US dollar.

Anticipation step that can be conducted is with minimization of continuation impact.

“Crisis will be transformed pass by two doors, namely financial market and mechanism of import exporting. If Indonesia can optimize observation in two doors, the impact will be able to minimalized, though will not lose at all,” specifically he said.

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